Dr. Isaac Ehrlich
Human capital and income distribution; Economic growth and development; Economics of health and value of life savings; Social security and population aging; Economics of information and uncertainty; Economics of crime and justice; Law and economics
Summary of Recent Relevant Research:
The general objective of our project "Econometric Modeling of WNY" is to use state of the art statistical and economic methods to model the behavior of the Western and Upstate New York economies and use it for both simulation analyses and forecasting. The relevance of the project for extreme events comes about mainly from the flexibility of the comprehensive and detailed model we are working on. Specifically, extreme events of various types, scope and severity could be introduced into our model via jump or regime-shifting stochastic processes. By including such rare events, the model could not only generate and forecast changes in key economic variables defining the economy at a point in time and over time, but also allow researchers and policy makers to compute risk management measures such as Value at Risk, which evaluate changes in variables of special interest at the time of emergency.