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Probabilistic Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential

H.H.M.Hwang, C.S.Lee

NCEER-91-0025 | 11/25/1991 | 96 pages

About the Report:

TOC: The table of contents is provided.

Keywords: Central United States, Probabilistic Methods, Nonlinear Response Analysis, Liquefaction Potential Probability Matrices, New Madrid Seismic Source Zone, Site Response Analysis, Probabilistic Liquefaction Analysis, Soil Dynamics, Engineering Seismology, and Fragility Curves.

Abstract: A probabilistic method for evaluating liquefaction potential is presented using a site at President Island near Memphis and the New Madrid seismic zone as examples. The liquefaction potential of a soil layer is estimated by using the factor of safety FL = R/L, where L is the shear stress ratio and R is the resistance shear stress ratio. Combined with the depth and thickness of each liquefied layer, FL yields Iwasaki's (1982) liquefaction potential index, PL. By including uncertainties in a variety of site parameters, 81 earthquake-site models are established. Given a moment magnitude, these earthquake-site models will yield probabilities of the occurrence of liquefaction of varying degrees of severity. Repeating the procedure with varying moment magnitudes permits construction of a liquefaction potential probability matrix and fragility curves. This method incorporates local site conditions and regional seismicity and can easily be made to accommodate uncertainties in seismic and site parameters.