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Seismic reliability analysis of large electric power systems

He Jun (何 军)1 and Li Jie (李 杰)2

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, 800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200240, China

  2. Department of Building Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai 200092, China

Abstract:  Based on the De.Morgan laws and Boolean simplification, a recursive decomposition method is introduced in this paper to identify the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network. The reliability or the reliability bound of a network can be conveniently expressed as the summation of the joint probabilities of these paths. Under the multivariate normal distribution assumption, a conditioned reliability index method is developed to evaluate joint probabilities of various exclusive safe paths and failed paths, and, finally, the seismic reliability or the reliability bound of an electric power system. Examples given in the paper show that the method is very simple and provides accurate results in the seismic reliability analysis.

Keywords: seismic reliability; electric power system; multivariate normal distribution; conditioned fractile index; correlation coefficient; joint probability

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Copyright 2009 IEM. Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as described below, without written permission from the Publisher. Copying of articles is not permitted except for personal and internal use, to the extent permitted by national copyright law, or under the terms of a license issued by the National Reproduction Rights Organization of China.